RatesDeskThe first link in the chain: the Fed funds rate against core PCE and CPI inflation, the real policy rate, market inflation expectations and the labor market — unemployment, jobless claims and payrolls.
Current readings · Oct 15, 2026
- Fed funds rate (EFFR): 3.88%
- Real Fed funds rate: 0.87%
- Core PCE, y/y: 3.01%
- CPI, y/y: 3.72%
- Core CPI, y/y: 2.57%
- 5y5y inflation expectations: 2.34%
- Unemployment rate: 4.2%
- Initial jobless claims: 199K
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